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Friday, 28 September, 2001, 18:43 GMT 19:43 UK
Analysis: New rules in Chechnya
![]() Russian never showed restraint in Chechnya
By BBC News Online's Stephen Mulvey
The attacks in the US have left both sides in the continuing conflict in Chechnya with a sense that the rules of the game may have changed - but it is a feeling that could quickly evaporate. They are fighting on - Russian officials claimed on Friday to have killed 10 rebels in 24 hours - but they are also, for once, making some contacts with each other, and have even held talks about talks.
Moscow feels that there is an obvious similarity between the US's planned reprisals against Osama Bin Laden - the man it accuses of plotting the attacks on New York and Washington - and its own actions in Chechnya. It now expects the global anti-terrorism coalition to stop carping about the way it conducts its business there. Tensions President Putin may have been hinting at this when he said in a television address that the extent of Russia's partnership with the coalition would depend on the level of "mutual understanding" achieved on international terrorism.
For the rebels, on the other hand, the attacks on the US, and the military response now being prepared, hold little promise of any improvement in their situation. They may fear a redoubled Russian assault, as well as a loss of international sympathy. And if they received funds and support from Osama Bin Laden - as many believed they did - these may now dry up. On top of that, there is much scope for the tensions that have always existed between rebel leader Aslan Maskhadov and his two most radical and powerful commanders - Shamil Basayev and the Arab, Khattab - to deepen. Surrender There have also been signs that Georgia may be about to get tougher with Chechen guerrillas sheltering on the southern slopes of the Caucasus - either to pre-empt a feared Russian incursion into Georgian territory, or because Georgian leaders too feel that something has changed since 11 September. The rebels' exploratory contacts with Russian officials, following President Putin's call for them to lay down their arms, could therefore be born out of desperation. They are likely to be using the opportunity to gauge Russian intentions - and nothing more. As always, Russian officials have said they are only interested in a Chechen surrender. They have explicitly discounted any kind of power-sharing arrangement. No compromise In the end, it could be that despite appearances, nothing has really changed, for the following reasons:
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